Watch out for Experts!
As if you needed any more proof that forecasters (real estate, weather, etc.) can make mistakes, two reports that were just released really hammer the point home.
The NAR just reported that existing home sales for the end of 2012 were nearly 1.5 million lower than were predicted. This is down 1% from the November sales and almost 2 percent below expectations.
But wait, there’s more. HUD reported that 369,000 new homes were sold at the end of 2012, down by 20,000 from what they predicted. This is a 7.3% drop from what they were hoping for.
Some “experts” were quick to defend their reputations by saying that we shouldn’t compare their predictions month to month, but rather by quarter. And if their quarterly predictions are off then we should probably just look at their yearly predictions, right?
I’m just tired of relying on “experts.” They’re not what we need right now. We need people on the ground doing the sales, getting the lay of the land, and getting a feel for what’s going on.
Are you the right man for the job? I think so. Leave a comment if you want to make money in real estate. I guarantee you won’t regret it.